Our projects

Frontiers in inference about risk

Research team: CI A/Prof Penev (UNSW) and CI Prof Shevchenko (Macquarie University)

Grant: Australian Research Council (ARC) discovery project DP160103489, $371,338

Dates: 2016-2021

Optimal decision making for risk mitigation of natural hazards using real options approach

Research team: Pavel Shevchenko, Stefan Trueck, Matteo Malavasi

Grant: CSIRO, $31,000

Dates: Jan-Dec 2022

Quantification of cyber risk and its driving risk factors

Research team: Pavel Shevchenko, Stefan Trueck, Jiwook Jang, George Sofronov, Matteo Malavasi, Matteo, Gareth Peters

Management of cyber risks has become an important issue for any large company. However, academic research on quantitative stochastic modelling of cyber risk is virtually absent and there are no commonly accepted models and methods. This project focuses on the development of actuarial models for the quantification of cyber risk losses and the identification of key risk factors. Specifically, the project will quantify appropriate models for the frequency and severity of cyber risk losses and their dependence on risk indicators such as quality of software systems, transaction volume, country, company size available in the analysed dataset. To accomplish this, the team will develop nonlinear regression frameworks for frequency and severity parameters using machine learning and extreme value theory methods.

Grant: Optus-Macquarie Cybersecurity Hub, $112,000

Dates: 2020-2021

Early-Warning Systems and Managing Systemic Risks using Real-Time Financial and Business Conditions Indicators

Area of Interest: Systemic Risk Lead Institution: Macquarie University Project Summary

Substantial resources in banks, businesses, governments and universities are devoted to deriving accurate and timely estimates of the state of the economy and systemic risks. These estimates are of central importance for business, financial, regulatory and macroeconomic policy decision-makers, who have to act in real time. However the data currently utilised is largely disparate, arrives at different time intervals, and is not always rigorously analysed for joint informational content with respect to the management of financial and systemic risks. This project applies the rigour of dynamic factor models (DFMs) for Australia in an international financial and macroeconomic context to model potential systemic risks for the financial sector and the economy. A key outcome is a new set of early warning indicators for systemic risk available over the internet, developed through close communication between Australian academics and practitioners including the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

See the full project summary

Research Team

Professor Stefan Trueck

The MySuper Default Option: Assessing Portfolio Diversification, Suitability for Contributors and Performance of Superannuation Investment Strategies

Area of Interest: Superannuation, Financial Market Developments

According to the Federal Government, MySuper is “a new low cost and simple superannuation product”, that will provide a “single diversified investment strategy, suitable for the vast majority of members who are in the default option.” As more and more MySuper products are approved by the regulator (APRA), this study seeks to explore the diversification of various MySuper products and their suitability for investors. The study will build on a new measure of diversification, the diversification delta. It will also focus on the performance of MySuper products when a contributor is close to retirement and his or her capital base is near its maximum. In this respect, the performance of MySuper products will be compared to alternative, potentially more conservative investment approaches that reduce downside risks for contributors close to retirement.

Research Team

Team Leader: Professor Stefan Trueck, Co-Director Centre for Financial Risk, Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Macquarie University; Researchers: Dr Robert Bianchi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University; Professor Michael Drew, Professor of Finance, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University; Dr Yuri Salazar, Postdoctoral Research Fellow - Centre for Financial Risk, Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Melbourne

See the full research project details

Elements of Risk Governance and Culture

We are a university-based group conducting research into the risk culture of large financial institutions. Bringing together expertise in financial risk management, organisational psychology, survey design and state of the art statistical analysis, we have developed the first rigorously validated survey instrument to assess risk culture. We are able to provide risk culture assessments on a consulting basis using our evidence-based methods. Find out more.

Regulation of Financial Plans and Allocated Pensions

This project will research the question of regulating for financial plans, allocated pensions and account-based pensions that carry less investment risk on the cusp of retirement and are better tailored to the spending plans of retirees.

More: Regulation of Financial Plans and Allocated Pensions

The Cost of Living Longer: Projecting the Effects of Prospective Mortality Improvements on Economic Support Ratios for a Selection of OECD Countries

This project will analyse the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for selected developed countries. The mortality forecasts will be as prepared by Li, Tickle and Parr using the Poisson Common Factor Model for a current IAAust grant-funded project. The proposed project will prepare population and labour force projections for a range of developed countries, and compare the values of economic support ratios between projections using the forecast mortality improvement and projections which assume constant mortality. The outcome will be a better understanding of the implications of forecast mortality change for population aging and economic dependency.

Research Team: Leonie Tickle, AFAS, Nick Parr, MM, Jacki Li (Nanyang Technological University)

Modeling climate impacted risk with generalised additive models with location, scale and shape

Area of Interest: Systemic Risk Lead Institution: Macquarie University

Research Team

Team Leader:

Professor Stefan Trueck | Co-Director Centre for Financial Risk, Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Macquarie University

Researchers:

David Pitt | Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies, Faculty of Business and Economics, Macquarie University

John McAnernay, Climate Futures

Tony Coleman, Lonergan Edwards and Associates Ltd

Measuring uncertainty in global housing markets and its risk to Australia

Area of interest: Real estate risk, financial bubbles, systemic risk, business cycles

This project aims to develop and construct a measure of systemic risk for the national real-estate markets in Australia, and its main trading partners, namely China, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom and United States of America. Recently developed methodology will be used to investigate how real estate risks migrate across these countries over time, and during periods of financial turbulence. This methodology is intended to be employed as part of a market stability surveillance program and for assessing the impact of real-estate risk on the overall economy. Early detection of the onset of future housing bubble collapses would be of significant benefit to policy makers, Australia’s trading partners, the real estate industry and ultimately home buyers.

Research team: Associate Professor Roselyne Joyeux; Department of Economics, Macquarie University; Associate Professor George Milunovich, Department of Economics, Macquarie University; Associate Professor Shuping Shi, Department of Economics, Macquarie University; Dr Ben Wang, Department of Economics, Macquarie University; Professor Yongheng Deng, Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin – Madison; Associate Professor Jing Wu, College of Business, City University of Hong Kong; Professor Eric Girardin, Aix-Marseille University.

Grant: ARC Discovery Grant DP190102049: $220,000

Awarded: 27 November 2018

Two-price quantitative finance

Area of interest: Quantitative finance

This project aims to establish a novel field, namely two-price quantitative finance, and explore its applications. The new field will integrate two major schools for modelling and explain the presence of two prices, the buying and selling prices, widely observed in the real-world markets, and the equilibrium approach from the fundamental law of one price. The outcomes would deepen our understanding of the fundamental relationship among liquidity, prices, risk and the economy. This project expects to bring about long-term impact on quantitative finance and related applications through providing a deep understanding of, and a new perspective for, the design, risk and fairness of the finance, property and insurance markets.

Research team: Professor Tak Kuen (Ken) Siu, Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University; Professor Robert Elliott, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta; Professor Dilip Madan, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland.

Grant: ARC Discovery Grant DP190102674: $450,000

Awarded: 27 November 2018

Monitoring financial bubbles using high-frequency data

Area of interest: Financial market risk, systemic risk, business cycles, financial bubbles

This project aims to develop an econometric procedure for monitoring speculative behaviour, often labelled as bubbles, in financial markets. There has been widespread recognition that financial speculation can inflict harm on the real economy. Crises or recessions are often preceded by excessive asset market speculation. This project will utilise intraday information for bubble detection and address major technical challenges arising from high-frequency financial data. It is expected to significantly improve the speed and accuracy of bubble detection, thereby providing more timely and precise warning alerts for investment decisions, market surveillance and policy action.

Research team: Associate Professor Shuping Shi, Department of Economics, Macquarie University

Grant: ARC Discovery Early Career Research Grant (DECRA) DE190100840: $375,000.00

Awarded: 27 November 2018

AntiPort – Educating the public on risks and the prevention of mobile number porting scams

Area of interest: Financial literacy, consumer protection, personal finance

This multi-disciplinary project aims to assist consumers to protect their privacy and finances by improving mobile phone security through education and implementation of other measures to stop personal information being compromised and abused by professional scammers. The project addresses a rapidly growing problem, with many individuals facing significant financial loss and considerable difficulty in rectifying the identity problems that arise from porting crimes.

An additional $30,000 contribution to the project will be provided by the Optus Macquarie Cyber Security Hub.

Research team: Professor Stefan Trueck, Department of Actuarial Studies and Business Analytics, Macquarie University; John Selby, Department of Accounting and Corporate Governance, Macquarie University; Christophe Doche, Department of Computing, Macquarie University; Martin Boyd, Department of Computing, Macquarie University.

Financial Literacy Australia Grant: $120,000

Awarded: November 2018

The nexus between Retirement Villages and Aged Care

Area of interest: Financial literacy, aged care funding

A project to investigate the nexus between Retirement Villages and Aged Care, exploring the risk and costs of relocating from a retirement village to other accommodation, particularly to aged care, with analysis of industry practices that may limit aged care funding options.

The grant follows on from a previous Financial Literacy Australia funded project for the development of a Retirement Village Calculator to compare fees between villages. The second stage of the retirement village project will allow a deeper exploration of the true costs and broader implications of living at a retirement village.

This will include an evaluation of financial or other hardships that may arise because of delays in returning funds to the resident by the village, and whether the amount available for aged care or other accommodation options may be eroded by unexpectedly high fees levied on departure or other unfavourable contract terms.

Research team: Headed by Associate Professor Timothy Kyng, Department of Actuarial Studies, Macquarie University

Financial Literacy Australia Grant: $90,000

Awarded: November 2018